MED-FOES: MED-Fly Outbreak and Extirpation Simulation

An Agent-Based Simulation of Invasive Pest Insects

Medfly
C. capitata adult. Photo by Scott Bauer, USDA-ARS

| Introduction |

MED-FOES is an implementation of a stochastic Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) system for analysing demographic changes in a single population of Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) over time. The simulation currently takes population extinction as a given because it aims to give us better estimates of necessary quarantine lengths in areas where Medfly is not currently established but does repeatedly invade. Thus the objective of this software is to estimate the time to local extirpation based on known ranges of developmental, survivorship and reproductive parameters, as well as assumed ranges of an eradication pressure parameter. For a complete analysis and estimate of time to extirpation one would execute a large number of individual simulations evenly distributed over parameter space to estimate the time at which an arbitrary percentage of the simulations show extirpation.

MED-FOES differs significantly from the most common current approach to estimating the time to extirpation of invasive insects generally, the Thermal Unit Accumulation approach, also called the “degree day” method. It is important to note that MED-FOES substantially differs from it in at least three important ways. 1) It is demographically explicit, 2) it includes the possibility of rare events, 3) it includes consideration of natural and human-induced mortality.

| Download |

The download is an installer which includes a compiled version of the ABS, associated programs, documentation, samples and source code. You can get it from here. Further project details, including older versions, some screenshots and more can be had by following this link

.

| Quick Start |

Installing

  1. Download the Java based installed (*.jre). You will have to make sure you have a Java Virtual Machine installed on your computer (check/get one here)
  2. Run the installer. If you have to do this at the command prompt then this command should work:
    java -jar [installer name].jar]
  3. Follow the prompts. Note where you are installing the software.
  4. Depending on your computer platform you may have to look in the directory where you installed MED-FOES for further instructions on how to start the program in GUI mode.

Running a sample run with the GUI

The installer includes a GUI-based version (produced with GUILiner) that can be used for demonstrations and for small scale investigations. To use it, start from menu ("GUI for MED-FOES") or navigate to the install directory using a terminal emulator and run the appropriate script for your platform (*.sh for *NIX and *.bat for MS Windows). Once running:
  1. click "Expand all"
  2. Load sample parameters (the XML file in your install/samples directory) using "File"->"Open XML File"
  3. Add sample climate data (also in the sample directory- a csv file)
  4. Fill in any other required parameters that may be missing (indicated in the parameter tree on the left in red)
  5. Click the "RUN PROGRAM" button. Output should be visible on the bottom pane.
You may also be able to find some help under "Help"->"Manual"

| Help |

Comments and requests for help can be directed to the author of the software, Nicholas Manoukis. The best way to reach him is by email: nicholas.manoukis [at] ars.usda.gov (replace [at] with @).

| Publications |

Manoukis, NC and Hoffman, K. An Agent-Based Simulation of Insect Invasions: Time to Extirpation of Ceratitis capitata. Under review.

| Acknowledgements |

This software was written by Nicholas C. Manoukis. The original idea for the project came from a workshop in Raleigh, NC at CPHST in March 2011. A paper describing the general approach and applying it to Medfly outbreaks in California was authored by Manoukis with Kevin Hoffman of CDFA (see Publications, above).

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